Executive Overview

Mission-critical supply chains run by NATO, NSPA, defence-industrial organisations, and national defence ministries and military commands must absorb demand shocks while meeting strict readiness targets. This 5-day (or 4-day) intensive programme delivers the quantitative toolkit—hands-on in Microsoft Excel—to build accurate forecasts, size inventories and design robust order policies. Learning is reinforced through two online sessions of the MIT Beer Distribution Game, a multiplayer web simulation that vividly exposes the bullwhip effect and the value of information sharing.

Training is conducted in English or in Turkish at MilSOFT’s premises in Ankara or in customer's location, with all materials provided in digital format. Participants who successfully complete the course will receive a certificate of achievement.

Key Learning Outcomes

Graduates will be able to

• Construct and compare forecasting models in MS Excel;

  • Define forecasting and explain its significance in supply chain and operations planning;

  • Distinguish between different forecasting approaches, including qualitative and quantitative methods;

  • Understand the structure of time-series data and perform basic decomposition into trend, seasonality, and noise components;

  • Apply the Naive forecasting method and recognize its appropriate use cases;

  • Use the Moving Average technique to smooth time-series data and generate short-term forecasts;

  • Implement Exponential Smoothing methods (including trend adjustment) to forecast more complex time-series patterns;

  • Evaluate forecast accuracy using common error metrics such as MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE;

  • Select appropriate forecasting techniques based on error measures and business context;

  • Apply associative forecasting methods, such as linear regression, to model relationships between variables and predict future outcomes;

  • Compare the strengths and limitations of time-series and causal forecasting techniques;

• Translate forecasts into safety-stock and lot-sizing parameters for MRP/ERP systems;

  • Explain the key assumptions and challenges associated with time-varying demand in inventory planning;

  • Apply the Three-Month Ordering Cycle to align procurement with periodic demand patterns;

  • Calculate and implement the Fixed Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model under stable demand conditions.

  • Develop inventory plans using the Wagner-Whitin algorithm to minimize total cost over a finite planning horizon;

  • Use the Silver-Meal heuristic for determining order quantities that balance ordering and holding costs;

  • Apply the Periodic Order Quantity (POQ) method based on EOQ as time supply for dynamic inventory control;

  • Implement the Lot-for-Lot strategy to align order quantities exactly with demand;

  • Compare and apply the Least Unit Cost (LUC) method to optimize cost per unit across multiple periods;

  • Use Part Period Balancing (PPB) technique to minimize total inventory costs by balancing holding and ordering costs;

  • Evaluate and choose between different lot sizing techniques based on demand patterns, cost structures, and planning horizons;

• Lead Beer Game workshops and use the resulting data for variance analysis and continuous-improvement road-maps;

• Present data-driven procurement cases to NATO and NSPA evaluators.

Who Should Attend?

NATO, NSPA & National Defence Organisations

Materiel planners, supply officers, inventory controllers, readiness analysts

Integrated Logistics Support (ILS/IPS) managers, MRO planners, depot managers, NSPA framework contractors

Critical-spares managers, demand planners, procurement coordinators

Defence & Aerospace Industry

High-Reliability Civil Sectors (energy, aviation, healthcare, rail, etc.)

Distinguished Instructor

Dr Çağlar Utku GÜLER

• Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering; Lecturer, Atılım University, Ankara (atilim.edu.tr)

• M.S. in Logistics Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Dayton, OH (scholar.afit.edu)

• Retired Air Force Engineering Colonel with extensive experience in defense logistics and enterprise systems.

• Architect of the Turkish Air Force’s enterprise Material Requirements Planning (MRP) algorithm and long-time functional leader in the design and evolution of SAP ERP-based MRP, Distribution, and Inventory Management systems within the Turkish Air Force.

• Led the functional architecture and implementation of mission-critical enhancements in SAP ERP over several years.

• Author of three books and peer-reviewed studies on forecasting, MRP, and defense logistics, and facilitator of 120+ Beer Game workshops for NATO, NSPA, and tier-1 aerospace OEMs.

• Delivered training to NATO personnel on forecasting techniques, inventory optimization, and MRP strategies based on clearly defined learning outcomes.

• Currently leading SAP S/4HANA implementation projects in the defense industry, managing a team of consultants and contributing to enterprise digital transformation with a focus on logistics excellence.

Programme Structure & Duration

The Advanced Forecasting & Inventory Management Program is structured as an intensive 5-day (or optionally 4-day) course that combines theoretical instruction with practical, Excel-based workshops. Participants engage in hands-on exercises to develop accurate forecasting models, optimize inventory levels, and design effective ordering policies. A key feature of the program is the inclusion of two online sessions of the MIT Beer Distribution Game, a multiplayer simulation that illustrates the bullwhip effect and emphasizes the importance of information sharing in supply chains. This blend of analytical tools and interactive simulations ensures that attendees can apply learned concepts directly to real-world supply chain challenges.

Core Programme (no Beer Game)

Same as Full Programme minus Beer Game module; additional Excel deep-dive and case work • Certificate of Completion Included

Full Programme (with Beer Game)

Excel Forecasting Lab • MRP & Inventory Theory • Ordering Algorithms under Time-Varying Demand • 2× Online Beer Game Sessions + De-brief • Monte Carlo & Optimisation Clinic • Capstone Readiness Case • Certificate of Completion Included

5 days / 6 hrs a day

4 days / 6 hrs a day

Curriculum Highlights

• Foundations of Forecasting:
  Understand the definition and approaches to forecasting, including decomposition of time-series data.

• Quantitative Forecasting Techniques:
  Apply Naive, Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing (with trend) methods for accurate demand prediction.

• Forecast Accuracy Assessment:
  Measure and compare forecast performance using standard error metrics.

• Associative Forecasting:
  Use regression-based models to explain and predict demand based on external variables.

• Time-Varying Demand Planning:
  Explore assumptions and strategies for handling dynamic demand environments.

• Ordering Algorithms:
  Learn and compare Fixed EOQ, Three-Month Ordering, POQ, Lot-for-Lot, Wagner-Whitin, Silver-Meal, LUC, and PPB methods.

• Simulation Experience – MIT Beer Game:
  Participate in two online sessions of the Beer Game to understand supply chain dynamics and the bullwhip effect.

Delivery Formats & Infrastructure

Training language: Turkish or English at client’s option.

Ankara/Turkey Classroom

Other On-Site Locations

Virtual (Live)

Venue Requirements: Training PCs with Excel 2019+; projector; All catering during the training (lunch, coffee breaks, and beverages) will be provided by MilSOFT.
Travel and accommodation expenses are the responsibility of the participant or the contracting organization.

Venue Requirements: Classroom, PCs, projector; host covers venue, travel, lodging & meals, and all catering during the training of the instructor and participants.

Venue Requirements: Stable broadband, webcam, microphone, MS Excel; web access to Beer Game platform. Beer Game platform and virtual lab configuration will be provided by NCU Technology.

Investment

Private cohorts (up to 8 delegates): USD 11.000 (Full) and USD 9.000 (Core) plus instructor travel and accomodation where applicable.

All training materials (presentations, handouts, exercises) will be prepared and delivered.

The Customer is responsible for arranging participant attendance and ensuring a minimum number of attendees (if applicable).

The scope of the training and the detailed program will be provided upon request.

Price does not include Value Added Tax (VAT)

Full Programme (5 Days)

Capacity: 8 participants

Core Programme (4 days)

Minimum number of attendees is 1

Minimum number of attendees is 1

Capacity: 8 participants

Certification

Participants who pass the capstone assessment receive the Certificate in Advanced Supply-Chain Planning, signed by Dr Güler.

★★★★★

Rated highest by over 100 participants

Entry Requirements

Basic Statistics

Mean, variance, probability concepts; error metrics such as MAD, MAPE. Essential for selecting and interpreting forecasting models and safety-stock calculations.

Supply-Chain / Inventory Familiarity

Awareness of MRP/ERP flows, stock codes (NSN, SKU), purchase & replenishment cycles. Case studies use real defence and aerospace data; prior exposure accelerates learning.

Microsoft Excel Skills

Worksheet navigation, formulas, charts, activation of the Solver add-in. All hands-on labs are conducted in Excel; participants build models and run optimisations themselves.

English Reading Comprehension
(if English delivery chosen)

Ability to follow slides, manuals and group discussions in English. Course materials and the Beer Game interface are in English; oral delivery may be Turkish or English at the client’s choice.

Coding Knowledge

Not required – ready-made VBA macros and templates are provided

If a participant meets the Excel and basic statistics prerequisites and works in demand planning, inventory management, procurement or logistics, they will derive maximum benefit from the programme. The curriculum is deliberately designed to accommodate mixed-experience cohorts: core theory is delivered concisely, while extensive Excel practice ensures immediate skill transfer.

Apply Now

If you would like detailed information about education, you can fill out the form on the right and wait for us to call you, or you can contact us immediately.

Phone: +90 312 704 01 98

E-mail: info@ncutech.com.tr